Just got an offer from Confluent for SDE - 2 role in Seattle. Offer details 200k - base 20k (10%) - annual bonus 120k - yearly stock vest (480k initial grant) TC with 0 stock appreciation - 340k Now the catch here is that the 480k grant price is likely going to be in mid 20s (let's assume $25) as I am joining in a month. Confluent stock pre crash was at $90. But there were solid months in Sept 21 - Feb 22 when stock was trading at $65 on average. Let's say we get there by year end 2023 (after stock market indices recover after FED stops hiking interest rates early 2023). Now that's an upside of almost 2.6x. That makes my 480k grant almost $1.248M. Aka my yearly vest would be 1.248 would be ~310k That would mean an annual TC of 200k (base) + 20k(bonus) + 310k(appreciated yearly stock vest) ~~~ 520-530k TC for 4 years. This seems like the biggest breakthrough a 24 year old could ever have ?
Wow congrats 🎉
It’s a good offer if confluent makes a comeback. But remember there are people who started working right after high school like Alexandr Wang who became a tech lead by 24
Yeah that's fine. Again as I said this purely hinges on the fact that confluent stock stages a comeback. My only reasoning behind that is currently growth stocks are heavily battered due to fed QT. So given the stock market recovers towards the end of 2023 that would mean most of these growth stocks would return to their pre crash levels. And $65 was indeed Confluent's pre crash average price.
Wang was tech lead at Quora in 2016, so he would've been around 19 then.
Lol
Well hold on, let me explain sir. If they knock the next 10 earnings out of the park and they find gold on premise, surely these numbers check out.
Sure, pricing in futue stock gains seems like a questionable strategy, but if it makes you feel good, go for it.
Yes 100% it's a questionable strategy. Again this is just speculative but hey the stock indeed was averaging out $65 pre crash. So unlike pre IPO company bets this seems like a liquid event bet.
Was the pre-crash price justified? If you think that strategy is good, why not go to coinbase, meta, or any other company whose stock has tanked and try for even larger gains?
Lots of assumptions on stock price in there. Offer is solid but nowhere what you're assuming.
Exactly
Yeah that's fine. Again as I said this purely hinges on the fact that confluent stock stages a comeback. My only reasoning behind that is currently growth stocks are heavily battered due to fed QT. So given the stock market recovers towards the end of 2023 that would mean most of these growth stocks would return to their pre crash levels. And $65 was indeed Confluent's pre crash average price.
Lol so many if else
Agreed. But don't you think confluent stock actually can and will get back to it's pre IPO levels ?
Why should it
Real TC: $340k
Yes. But let's say confluent stock does rise 2.6x from today's price then it would indeed be a reality right?
If ur so sure abt that buy calls and put ur tc as 10M smh
Umm If you’re that sure of the stock price rebounding - just buy the stock on margin and make millions instead?
Well. 😩
Why are you so confident in the market recovery so soon
Well whenever that recovers. Either way 2023 end or early 2024 is when my first annual stock grant would vest. So if confluent stock does recover 2.6x by then that would essentially mean I have struck gold right? Pardon my 24 year old naive ass.
A lot of wishful thinking here.
it’s fine
Wdym?
It means it’s fine