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-GPT-4 is out. -Github Copilot is a juggernaut. -Microsoft is putting AI everywhere. Can someone with expertise give a consistent analysis of the future of software development jobs in 5 years ?? Especially salaries. #engineering #software #Chatgpt #GPT-4
Are you afraid? Don't be. You gotta evolve to survive
💯
Not an expert in consistent analysis of future except for being ready for bubble burst of tech after seeing the hiring spree & high TC era. 5years is big time , considering how fast AI is moving at openai/Microsoft. I'm confident that we're required to adapt to new Normal. Small teams , less new grad hiring, less TC for nominal skills like webdev etc... But hopefully AI gonna create more jobs in that domain. That way energy is transferred but not destroyed hopefully
Why webdev is nominal and what is not nominal?
I'm a web developer (inclined towards FE) myself, felt so...
Firstly, the rise of GPT-4 and GitHub Copilot is likely to change the way developers work. These technologies are designed to automate some of the most repetitive and mundane tasks in software development, such as writing boilerplate code or documentation. This could free up developers to focus on more complex and creative work, which could increase demand for experienced developers who are skilled in solving complex problems. Secondly, the increasing adoption of AI across all industries, including software development, is likely to create more job opportunities for those with skills in machine learning, natural language processing, and data analysis. As companies continue to invest in AI-driven software solutions, the demand for developers with these skills is likely to increase. However, it's worth noting that AI and automation are also likely to have an impact on the number of jobs available in software development. As more routine tasks are automated, there may be a shift in the types of roles that are available, with more emphasis on those that require creative problem-solving skills and domain expertise. Regarding salaries, it's difficult to predict the future, but given the high demand for skilled developers, it's reasonable to expect that salaries will remain competitive. However, it's also possible that as automation and AI become more prevalent, some roles may become commoditized, leading to downward pressure on salaries. In summary, the future of software development jobs is likely to be shaped by the continued adoption of AI and automation. While this is likely to create new job opportunities and increase demand for certain skills, it may also lead to changes in the types of roles available and could impact salary levels in some areas.
This is what ChatGPT said
Feel like content creation is safer than software dev. So obvious when something is generated by GPT
Hot take: A.I. will never exceed nor even be at the level of the human mind. We are infinitely complex
I thought this was a given
But we are talking about some generative AI automating software jobs. We are not talking about your infinitely complex and useless bullshit which nobody cares.
If you're asking this question you're probably a new dev. AI can automate and reproduce the mundane tasks which might look like actual work, for a new dev. Once you understand what this job actually entails you'll see that there ain't replacing anything until we achieve AGI. At that point everyone is replaceable so we either all die or kill ourselves since we have achieved godhood (created our own self aware entities).
The amount of jobs it will make is going to be astronomical. Think of all the things we do to support and operate systems. More and more demand will rise for ops and infra ppl to support ever growing AI services. The world will continue to evolve and digitize more and more data with AI making more and more data. So we will have to figure out ways to scale while considering privacy and influence and ethics. Many many many more jobs and much more demand for SWE and system design thinking.
Once upon a time programmers used these things called punch cards. Then came these higher level languages and took the punch carders' jobs away, but programmers remained and this was the age of Fotran and Cobol. Then came C, the mother of all high-level languages and took the jobs of these Fotran and Cobol programmers. The age of C has begun, and gave birth successors we know today. Then came intellisense and Google, and took the jobs of those who could code, and was replaced with "programmers" who had to rely on Stackoverflow and Google for remembering syntaxes. Then came assistive co-pilot ... A long story to tell you that what makes a SWE isn't what you can code without needing stackoverflow, or the ability to understand assembly languages. These are tools, you should embrace them, and with each higher level language, you move from literal "computers" to "programmers" to "engineers" and your salary range from from clerk to professional to top of market. So, if you ask me? This makes you able to leverage more with less, and the salary ranges will reflect that. In the end of the day, these are tools to solve problems.
It will replace most of the jobs but not the way you think. Why would anyone bother in creating an app (back-end, db, front-end) when all it's needed is a clever prompt for an LLM model? Imagine DoorDash being replaced with an LLM with a large context and a prompt to track all the orders. This assumes that the actual cost serving of those models will significantly decrease over time. But hey, no ASM/C programmer would believe in something like Python on production back in the days.
The thing is - if someone uses AI tools, it is not for free and the price is high. And it is not a subscription fee. It is that in exchange for "increased productivity" you are giving up your expertise to the AI, as it learns from your code (in the case you are a programmer) and responses. For free. That is a highest price humans will pay for using AI. Remember how companies sell personal data of their customers. Only in this case it is much worse. This applies not only to Individuals, but to companies as well. They will lose their know-how (intellectual property) for the questionable benefit. How owner of AI assistant can guarantee IP rights and how NDA can be enforced? It is almost assured the intellectual property will be lost... I will be happy to see the proof I am wrong though.
You can stop copilot harvesting your code at least, I recommend everyone does this if you're using it for work purposes.
Did Google take someone's job away? Yes but humanity survived. Information is more accessible now than ever Did computers take someone's job away? Yes but there are still libraries around and people enjoy reading books. It's not the majority. We should be scared but being scared of the unknown isn't a new phenomenon.
That's the spirit
I’m reminded of a company that used to exist next to my first job. They specialized in placing newspaper ads in thousands of newspapers. Between 2004-2007 it was turned to dust and the 50 person company closed. That’s the story all across the world that Google/ doubleclick unleashed.