Argo AI Offer Evaluation and thoughts?
Senior SWE Base 220 Bonus 15% 730k RSUs at 20B valuation. Don’t know how to translate this as its still pre ipo. (They are offering fixed number of RSUs) Current valuation around 12B What are the growth aspects in respect to the valuation (looks like I need to discount RSUs by 40%) Hows wlb? Hows management and culture? Any thoughts on the offer? There are multiple competitors in AV space so any insights from Argo folks would be helpful. YOE 8 TC: 380 #argoai #argo #offer #tech #cruise #waymo
I think they are on track for ipo in 1-2yrs?
Yes. Thats why they are offering RSUs. But feels like valuation is already high and they are pumping numbers further
Yeah, it makes no sense at all to give you a value based on projected future valuation. I would ask for the number of shares to be increased so that the value is $730K at time of granting. I would tell them for absolutely any role that provides equity, there is incentive to contribute to growth, yet no other firms on the market base the offer around a hypothetical future value. In order for you to compare with other offers, you’d expect that target value to be expressed in roughly today’s valuation, like it is everywhere else. You gotta be prepared to walk if they won’t do that.
Growth tech is generally seeing a downward trend. So that 12B can soon become 4B. If you are willing to play the long game, the returns may be tremendous.
Long game as in 5 years??
I don’t know. They are backed by VW and ford which makes a big difference. But, the way market is behaving, 12B valuation is a joke.
20b 😂😂😵💫😵💫🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️
Express your emotions in words so can understand better 😀😀
Your offer can also be 1.4m rsu at 40Billion evaluation - for 😂😂 . Current 12b based on what kind of quarterly results and current revenues - for 😵💫😵💫. Market decides true value not investors/companies 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️ .
Ask for $1.2M worth of equity at 20B. Because, you will need to discount it by 40%. 20B can happen in the future… that upside is why you choose joining startups and it should not be factored into the offer.
If they don’t fix the offer … then, please decline and move-on
Did you negotiate when you joined Argo?
The amount of share is inline to our pay band. Probably able to get more with some negotiations. It terms of valuation, the volatility for tech recently is so big right now. Thanks to meta. Luckily pre-ipo company is not affected that much. But if you look at companies in AV industry already IPOed (AUR and TSP). They are struggling with their business model and profitability, as well as stock valuation. So IMO, if you looking for fun work and have strong believe in AV industry rather than immediate liquidation and exponential stock appreciation, argo is a place to go.
Wow. Those stocks are almost 50 to 70% down since IPO. So what does that even mean when it comes to Argo as its already giving stocks at future valuation? I will be excited about work and challenges but at-least want some output in 2 years down the lane.
ipo means to expose your finance to public, that require strong revenue and profitability to maintain stock price. Do your research and you can see this is something AUR and TSP can’t deliver right now. So the industry need to be a little more patient consider going IPO. That leads to employee have their RSU in hand rather than liquidation. In terms of future valuation, that means you don’t have chance to get exponential stock appreciation in the future compare to typical start up give option at current valuation. The work is fun and you can see it making progress every day.
I am also considering an offer from Argo and same problem they are selling on future valuation which is simply not fair. Looking at AUR I do not buy $20b ipo valuation thesis
Why are you leaving cruise for Argo though, Cruise at least is launching public rides
Because of culture. But I will be leaving 1.4M on table while leaving Cruise. What should I expect from Argo in terms of stock m? 16yoe
It was beautiful seeing the valuation but eventually, Argo might have similar financial situations (delayed ipo ) to cruise. Because they are controlled by ford & VW.
That is probably better given market situation since market is going to crush companies with 0 revenue and bunch of r&d expenses.
Too little RSUs...
What should be the expectations?
Double that. Current valuations are rich and no much buffering in their offer and too close to your current TC