If blind existed in the year 2000, rather than FAANG, people would be talking about the following top tier companies: IBM Microsoft Yahoo Cisco Sun Microsystems There were also many hot startups/newer public companies that would be coveted to a similar degree, such as Amazon, Google, eBay, Ariba, Akamai, Pets.com, etc. In 2010, after 10 turbulent years, some of these companies remained in the top tier (Google, Microsoft, Amazon), some soundly exited the top tier (Yahoo, Cisco, IBM) and others were acquired or failed entirely We are now in another turbulent time. For the next 10 years, give your predictions on which of the FAANGMULA+ will stay in the top tier, which will exit the top tier but stay around, and which will be acquired/fail entirely Give your predictions now
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Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft. If no transpacific war, then Airbnb and Apple, maybe Tesla, will be there as well.
How about Databricks?
Disagree on Meta, think it will go the way of PayPal. Will be known for having tremendous engineering in its glory days (late 2000s and early to mid 2010s) then become a husk of what it was.
Two things for certain: Facebook and Netflix are gone, Apple and Amazon are still top tier
Google?
Google.
Apple Amazon Google Microsoft (think it will remain top tier in terms of stock but not in terms of engineering quality or pay) AirBnB? (maybe not due to full remote) Emerging: Snowflake Databricks Stripe Tesla (top tier stock not in terms of eng quality or pay)
Agree with everything you wrote except snowflake.
How come?
Amazon slows cause retail isn’t growing or making money and the MBAs can’t think of any profitable creative ideas. Microsoft slows cause everyone and their mother already uses Azure and next gen companies hate Teams. Apple maintains cause it’s a fashion brand. Google maintains cause search is still a problem. Netflix shrinks cause streaming a video file is no longer unique.
I like your analysis. Any thoughts about the following companies? Uber, Lyft, Airbnb, Meta, Snap, Snowflake, Databricks
Again i’m a bias fuck so not sure if this makes any sense. Uber maintains cause moving food is their business now and their CEO is not a growth guy. Lyft slows down because they have no ambitions outside of ride share. Airbnb (controversial one here) slows because people are realizing hotels don’t make you strip the bed and do laundry. Meta is fucked unless the AR headset in the fall uses alien, unseen technology cause Apple will fuck them in h1 2023. No clue about Snowflake. I have some really smart friends at Databricks so i’ll give them a grow but no clue.
Uber , lyft and ABNB are not top tier. 2 of them are cab hauling services mixed with food delivery . We are NO where close to getting FSD. ABNB is awesome in terms of tech, but limited like Expedia Group and will suffer if Booking.com turns the heat on
I hate the fees in Airbnb. One time I found the exact same listing in VRBO and it cost 200 less
@google . Airbnb and vrbo are like overstock.com and way fair. Same inventory(almost) and depending on your luck. One is cheaper than the other. 🤷🏽♂️.. btw Expedia owns vrbo now
Meta and Netflix drop. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon remain top tier. Apple on the fence.
I feel like Apple is too deeply rooted in Western society to fail. Nobody wants to give up blue message bubbles
Oh, I don’t think it will fail. I just think it won’t continue to grow at the same clip as the previous 10 years. They haven’t come out with something truly innovative since the iPhone and they seem to have found a price point that people are unwilling to go above.
The way to predict this is to see which companies are solving some fundamental problems. Amazon, Google, Microsoft will remain top tier as they continue to solve fundamental problems Netflix and Meta no longer solve fundamental problems that society cares about, they will be gone Uber, Lyft, Airbnb - these do fully not solve fundamental issues either, their model isn’t sustainable and in the case of Airbnb - they made the housing crisis worse. The new companies that will become top tier are the ones that will solve fundamental problems in a sustainable way - aka housing shortages, transportation inefficiencies. Ask yourself which tech company saves people time, and is cost effective; that’s the one that will ascend to the top
In my opinion Uber (ignoring Eats for now) and Lyft solves two fundamental problems: 1. How can I travel from point A to point B without a car/after drinking 2. How can I convert my time into money on an ad-hoc basis What do you think?
Sure, I get your point - but I don’t think it’s sustainable for either problems - 1) most people will not need an Uber unless it’s the weekend night or they’re going to the airport. Anyone making less than high six figures will not Uber everyday. And even the cost effectiveness of this ties down to your second point: 2) with rising gas prices, car prices, repair prices, inflation, etc., more and more people will feel that it is not worth it, they’ll switch to other stuff for ad-hoc money like handyman services, or baby sitting, pet walking, house cleaning, etc Maybe short term these solutions worked, but in the long term the transportation problem really needs to be solved by more efficient transportation infrastructure (even if it’s public transportation)
What about Spotify?
That's just Netflix for music - even worse most of the contents aren't exclusive
And way further from cash flow somehow
PayPal will retain its foothold by continuing to purchase smaller fintechs like it did with venmo and braintree. Stripe will stay a close second and buy chime and plaid to shore up its capabilities. Netflix will merge with other content providers and disappear eventually. Amazon will remain a leader but will have its margins diminished by ecommerce sites like shopify, etsy and other brand names as they develop online and google search presence. Aws will be spun off Salesforce will remain a market leader but as it gets more expensive, companies will start to look for trimmed down solutions that will suffice. Doordash, ubereats and grubhub will be bought by deliveroo which will become a global player Uber, lyft and Airbnb will merge with booking.com and expedia to provide end to end travel concierge services. Google will become like MSFT, obsolete, and clunky but still used by many millennials who grew up on it (Microsoft will deprecate windows completely except for excel which it will spin off). Youtube will take over TikTok when it gets banned by the US Facebook (aka Meta) will die with the Boomer and Gen X generation. (I don't know any zoomer using it)
I think Meta still has a few aces up it’s sleeve. If it really focussed on VR as an ad farming platform, it will gain traction with post GenZ. Disagree about Airbnb unless the tap of PRC money into property investments dries up and hotels become competitive again. Airbnb is still relevant in PRC dominated markets (such as SF) where hotels are garbage and overpriced. Disagree about SFDC, they’re today’s Oracle, and will be displaced in 5-7 years. Disagree about Amazon, they’ll find a way to keep dominating retails markets. I agree Stripe can enter the ranks, esp if it branches out into other facets of Fintech. Agree 100% about the others.
I think discord is the next facebook for the newer generation. thoughts?
Laughed at the ending with a clear call to action, well done. Did you write marketing text for a living in the past?
ow2 beta needs work!
Finally someone is talking about this. Ow2 is basically ow1 with one less tank :-| Also, changing the position of the sun in an old map doesn't count as ow2 map.