Google/FB equity vs Uber equity
Assume same base / bonuses / etc. 500K GOOG/FB versus 1 million UBER at current public / private valuation. You can pick between Facebook or Google stock in the FB/GOOG option. Consider a liquidity discount as well. Which would you rather have?
you need to consider Uber for different reasons around culture and work life balance. impact and job and learning is bigger and better but at a cost.
remember, it's not just about true worth of company in market. lt is difficult to predict market. you never know if it's gonna half or double till it's not in the market. given that I would go with FB/Google
500k is too much to leave on the table in exchange of liquidity.
personally I'd much rather 500k, have a good culture and work life balance. but if u are looking for growth, autonomy and scope then Uber better. your base is going to be bigger elsewhere so that needs to be factored
You're not leaving anything on the table because until you can sell it it's worth zero. The comparison is between having a 100% chance at 500k, vs a ??? chance at 1M. If ??? > 50%, take the 1M gamble. If not, go with the 500k. So basically the question is, what's the chance that Uber IPOs within 4 years? And that's before you start thinking about how each stock might perform.
Uber stock is risky. A year ago, I said Uber is worth it assuming we win China and autonomy. We already lost China and we might lose the autonomy race too.
We own 20% of didi, how is that a loss.?
Re:Moscow - That's because Uber thought it was 100% - don't live in sand castles , you are trying to keep yourself happy , sure do but don't lie - clearly Uber is very much over valued.
I would only take the Uber equity if I already had a lot of money saved. Private equity is inherently much riskier. You have a significant chance of getting $0 from it. With public companies that's nearly impossible.
Fb 100%. In two years my equity at fb has given me 100% return. Even if fb increases 15% a year over four years, the 500k is worth 880k
Most folks here are poor and have less than a million in the bank. Furthermore they are extremely conservative. If you have some cash already and are not conservative then no brained uber. Only small percentage of people are risk takers and you cannot get rich at big companies for sure how many four years does one have and you wanna sell it for slightly north of a million pre tax? Minus living expenses that's maybe 60-70k per year.
Depends on team, level, current situation. I wouldn't accept .5 at the moment to leave, it has to be .7 with a decent team match, or more with shitty team match.
Assume everything is equal. Purely an investment perspective, not a job perspective