“Startup Grind” offers base and RSUs. The latter is zero until IPO. My forecast for “Startup Grind”: 1. 50% chance of IPO in 5 years 50% chance of ~2-3x (per share value post dilution) 25% chance of ~1x 25% chance of << 1x 2. 25% chance of IPO 5-10 years 3. 25% chance of going nowhere Obviously it’s much safer to stay at G, but again layoff could hit any time at any point of time. My raw technical skills are also deteriorating at G. But I also got an above average performance rating at G, so maybe promotion soon(TM)??? Work life balance will be much worse at “Startup Grind”. Expected to easily work 40% more hours. Meaning less time spent with spouse and/or family and hobbies. But I will be working on much more interesting stuff with real impact to the world (at least on paper). But I know, grass is greener in the other side TC: see post option
Your IPO forecast is way too optimistic.
If it’s not a heck yeah it’s a no.
That's not enough equity to consider the startup grind with limited chances and multiplier if it succeeds
you miscalculated the startup TC. it’s $215k, a 35% salary cut from G. that 35% will compound over time so this is huge mistake
Unsure if I should treat paper RSUs as literally zeros, but I get the point.
Is G L4 160k in NYC/Bay normal?
Probably better check levels.fyi.
It's always a risk vs reward calculation. Startups are risky, but the gamble is that $234k equity will go up over time. With the high base, it's not as much of a risk. It's a harder choice when it's super low base. Without the company info, I'd guess it's a well funded and later stage, and less chance of going bust than the general rate of all startups.
What’s yoe?
Decide based on your long term goals. Is the experience in the startup going to elevate your skills and your career trajectory? Then hell yes!
1) I wouldn't count paper money as money. Even if you are a professional in the start up evaluation and investment (which probably you are not), changes are high that you are wrong. It's a bonus if you are right, but I wouldn't count on it. Founders/hiring managers are always overselling their chances. 2) Even if the start up goes on IPO, this doesn't mean that it's a success story. Check our these IPOs of 2024 - a lot of them are in the red. So EVEN (it's a huuuuuge IF) that start up goes to IPO, it might not get you as much as you think it would. https://stockanalysis.com/ipos/2024/ I'd go for it if you find other upsides that are very valuable - experience, meaningful work, certain type of work etc. Definitely not a good move if one of your top goals is optimizing your financial outcome.
There is not enough info here for anyone to help you make a decision. Most of the time you are better off in big tech. If you want to join a startup do it cause its going to be enjoyable not for the money.
Thanks!! I do agree with the more enjoyable part.