Just want to hear some serious thoughts on this. My naive thought is that 1: LLM chat will kill some search needs —> negatively impacting ads income for search engines. So LLM doesn’t positively contribute to Google search revenue. 2: for LLM as a service, OpenAI + Microsoft Enterprise is in pretty good position. It might be hard for Gemini to cut into it. Do I miss something? Please share your thoughts. TC: ~200k 🥜🥜🥜
What you missed is irrespective of the potential of Gemini, we are paid well and you get peanuts
It’s still way too early for LLMs. There’s no real monopoly or clear answer yet which holds the largest market share.
This is somewhat True! For long run, it might be too early to say the winner, especially with the CEO drama just happened. But for short term, I think OpenAI is in better position. But it seems there is strong hype on Google’s Gemini Announcement to go t now!
(1) is definitely naive. some searches will shift to chatbots sure but many many more have already shifted to instagram and tiktok. LLMs are a minuscule impact on search traffic. the real problem with LLMs is that they make it incredibly easy for SEO spammers to pollute the open web with bullshit content, which makes search less useful. and the other real problem is that search will start to include LLM-generated result info in some cases, which will increase the cost per search and cost per ad impression or click or conversion. LLMs don't cannibalize the search business model by being better at search, but by shitting on the bed.
For (1), very good point! Comparing to social media, LLM indeed seems negligible. For your point of LLM pollution, do you think theses social media platforms which could better guarded from generated content will attract more search traffic?
youtube and instagram are full of spam too, but the way people interact with content there is fundamentally different, more about subscribing to content creators than just searching openly. it has different ways to break, with fake content getting popular, social bubbles, etc, but it's nothing like the open web
I suspect Google will integrate ads into Bard answers, at least on search. You might ask the most reliable cars and it suggests Toyota, but Google can charge for an ad to have an actual link to Toyota there.
This is basically what Bing is doing. Not sure if there are data shows the conversion rate and ads revenue based on this strategy compared to regular search.