I have been analyzing Netflix data for weeks and can’t see it existing beyond 2025. Diminishing subscriptions, massive production costs, commoditization of streaming and no horizontal integration Hell, streaming companies are just tv channels at this point. #SHORT
Says the guy who works at a dying company. You have a mirror?
OTOH he’s in Detroit in the dead of winter, so he has a lot of time for research :)
You dont know where i work man
220 million paying subscribers. Low churn. Dying in 5 years. Interesting.
Problem is spending man. In order to keep the subs you need to spend more and more. 0 cashflow.
The amount of good content is definitely declining/stagnating- pretty much most of the major content from other studios has been pulled out, so Netflix is now competing on originals. That means that content costs are going to keep going up as competition heats up,, as Apple said.
Won't die but a very high chance it will stagnate unless they are able to break into something new. The high multiples has already come down to reflect that change.
Yeah I don’t think they have any technological moat that they once had (vs video rental business or tv channels). It has become purely a competition on content. They seem to be doing good job with securing good contents so far but I don’t get how they position themselves as a tech company anymore either
Netflix's growth may stagnate because everyone who wants it has it, but it won't die off. That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. It's still the biggest streaming service out there with arguably the best original content for adults
MySpace was pretty big in the day. Lets put that over the table
MySpace didn't have a proper business model while Netflix has millions of paying subscribers. Huge difference. It's like saying MoviePass failed so Amazon will fail too. There's literally no correlation between MySpace and Netflix
Where do you see diminishing subscriptions, can you get the facts straight? Netflix has never seen a single quarter of subscribers decrease since Qwikister a decade ago
Didn't your guidance indicate significant slowdown in growth rate? People see that as a precursor to diminishing subscriptions as competition heats up and Netflix is mostly competing on content now.
That's one quarter's guidance. Netflix has many one quarter slowdown in the history due to price hike, content timing etc, are you seriously extrapolating using one forecast data point? That's just dumb
Stupid businesses I never paid a cent in my life for videos. Only dumb people don’t know how to download it. I hope businesses like Spotify, Netflix fail. They are taking advantage of dumb people
It's called convenience. I am sure most can download stuff for "free" but chose convenience
It will make it longer then 5 years, but it does need to think about packaging with other stuff. Disney+ESPN+Hulu is a powerful package and Prime getting you amazon streaming is also nice. Netflix just being stand alone will have an effect if they dont do something…. We are reaching a point where there are so many streaming options people are going to have to decide on how many they consistently want to leverage and if Netflix falls below that line it could get ugly.
netflix anticipated not taking on more debt in its earnings call. that points to content costs hitting equilibrium with revenue does that mean netflix will grow as much as it did the past decade? probably not. UCAN saturation physics are pretty conclusive but subscriptions are real money coming in from real people. unless netflix content suddenly and surprisingly does a complete 180 in subscriber appeal, netflix will almost certainly be around in 3 years but you’re not alone in thinking netflix needs to diversify its offerings. gaming is one aspect but it’s a risky area when it comes to ROI
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