All I see right now is the market going to the moon with AI hype, but it’s backed by near term earnings (nvidia/supermicro/meta/msft) etc. It feels similar to late 2021. However: 1. Tech jobs are hard to find. Not sure about other industries, but assuming it’s not great. 2. Housing market has sidelined buyers waiting to enter the market, but also a huge supply of existing owners that want to sell but can’t take on a new mortgage with current rates. 3. Fed can’t cut rates with the market exploding like this, and any signal for that would spook the market into a downward spiral. It feels off, hopefully I’m not the only one. Tc 300
CRE debt is going to be a slow rolling disaster starting second half of 2024. Fed will have to do another bailout… but they don’t have many weapons left unless they want to really trigger hyperinflation. Will get interesting.
If I invest, there will be a recession. I guarantee it!
Same
Spread out your investment to cause a slow landing
F
Already, they changed the definition
Doesn’t any definition of recession require gdp decrease? Real gdp has been growing ever quarter in 2023. How are we already in a recession? https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2023-advance-estimate
The tech stocks are going to the moon, not the job market. Most of the new roles are pretty demanding in terms of wlb and 50 to 60 hour week expectations with new roles is becoming the norm. I wonder where those jokers are who were proposing 4 day week during covid.
too high
Here we go again...
Tech jobs are way easier to find than last year. Lots of people want to buy houses, but seldom do an owner want to sell. I’m talking about the bay area. Rates are slowly dropping.
Shut up Biden
Dont fight the fed. With such high fed rate, there has always been a recession.
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Inflationary recession
Is the s&p a good play in that environment or fixed income assets?
Wouldn’t “fixed income” assets be bad by definition in an inflationary environment? That fixed income gets less spending power as inflation grows