Haha no, unfortunately that seems super unlikley. Demand is sky high, inventory is nonexistent (which is why prices are flat in many areas), interest rates are low, and job growth is sky high. Less a major natural disaster or actual war it would be very unlikely to have a correction let a lone a crash. A crash by the way may never happen again in our lifetime; folks need to stop confusing the great recession caused by unrelated mortgage loans as being the normal recession. We may actually be in recession right now folks.
Define "crash"
Not in the areas associated with tech. eg West coast.
Not the crash like 2008, where all the banks were giving away loans to people who shouldnt have qualified. Banks and real estate giants learned from that. With that said, the market will stagnate and even decline a bit in most metro areas (more inventory than buyers).
Can next election play a role? Like Elizabeth Warren getting elected??
I think people who have bought homes will think “No” and people who are still looking to buy may think “yes” because of their vested interests. There’s no clear data to suggest any of those sides. All the speculations talk about market correction for housing specially in Bay Area as past few years pricing had bubbled up significantly.
Just to provide a black swan. I own real estate but never plan to ever sell. All that matters to me is purchase price and cash flow so I always hope for a huge crash as that's when I can buy more at a bargin value. Agreed that housing is hard to predict of course.
Correct answer is - no one knows
Hope is for 15-20% correction
Only time home price index went down 16% was in 2008. Every other recession, the same went down only 5%. So 15 - 20% is very unlikely.
What is the argument for market crashing in hot areas like San Francisco. While demand for housing may go down in rest if the country, why on earth prices will go down in SFO? (Granted the growth may not be as much)
Probably the most severe but possible scenario is a 1906 style large earthquake causing massive, widespread property damage
So basically there is no viable scenario for price drop proportional to rest of the country... The logic is... You can not plan for that level of acts of nature... forget property damage, what if you die under the house you own... your investments will be irrelevant.
No
Why do you say that?
Seattle market already down 4% over the last year and predictions point to zero growth at best over next year, so yes...certain markets are “crashing” or at least depreciating-call it a correction if it makes you feel better