Assuming I could pass interviews, what is the probability of succeeding in the role?
If you don’t put your level on your resume and somehow have relevant stories and abnormally good systems design for a l4, with 10 yoe, It’s possible
Bruh you can get L4 at google with 2 YOE. And it’s Amazon tier now Google entitlement is unreal
Who cares? If you clear the loop, you're a fit!
The only thing that matters is the narrative. The only thing that is quantifiable is lines of code, quality delivery, and delivering impact. Age/YOE are irrelevant. Have had L3s who chewed L5B(staff) for lunch. But be careful at that level, people are politicians and will do everything in their hands to chew you apart.
Low. Best case: remain in the same role for years without any growth in sight. Worst case: fired in a year or so. This is assuming you are a cookie cutter L4. Not some genius who google decided to downlevel from senior to L4. A good question to ask yourself is, can i perform at my current L6 level at Google.
I interviewed at Google as L5 but was downleveled to L4. I have ~2 years big tech, and 10 years tiny startups before that (as ~CTO / founding engineer).
You were lowballed bad OP