Morgan Stanley Warns about Recession . What’s your take ?
A global recession could start within nine months if President Donald Trump imposes 25 per cent tariffs on an additional US$300 billion of Chinese exports and Beijing retaliates, according to Morgan Stanley. Separately, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the probability of a U.S. recession in the second half of this year had risen to 40 per cent from 25 per cent a month ago. Also sounding the alert, economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said they now expect the U.S. to impose 10 per cent tariffs on the remaining US$300 billion-worth of imports from China and on all Mexican goods, too. The bank lowered its U.S. second-half growth forecast by about half a percentage point to 2 per cent and said its sees a greater likelihood of interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve
Looming tariffs, yield curve inversion, and now bad jobs numbers from ADP mean we're going to have a recession. I'm not too worried about big tech but industries outside will feel it. Worth nothing exporters to China and farmers have been feeling it for a while. Not sure about real estate which seems to talked about a lot on here.
Nice analysis 👍👏
What is ADP?
Hodl
Maybe buy the bigger question is why everyone cares. Recessions are great, it's when we build most wealth.
Trump 2020
2020 election, Iran, China, US basic economy indicators (i.e- consumer confidence, jobs report, fed rates, etc) Its a tough environment to navigate for experienced investors let alone an average investor such as myself. The chances of recession have only increased. My guy is telling me hold cash and wait to attack in 2020 and get the best value. Long on CRM :)
Who’s your guy
Don't try to time the market
Market leads the way down, not fundamentals. Won't look like other recessions. Won't really sour for another year. Political risk is still huge. Markets are real jumpy. Zombie economy...
Yea. Recession. Four months before we celebrate 2009.