I recently accepted an offer from Snowflake ($550k a year ). I like the space they are in and I feel like I can contributed to the team I'll be joining and yes, of course, the salary jump. I've been reading that Snowflake is overvalued for it's revenue ( inspite of high NRR and 100% growth numbers ). It'll do $1B in revenue for the year 2021 for a $90B valuation ( $90B valuation after around a 30% drop in last 2 months ). Whereas -> Datadog has around $1B in revenue and it at $45B in valuation, -> Twilio is $2B in revenue with $42B in valuation -> Airbnb is at $5B in revenue and ~$90B in valuation. I know there is no magic formula to determine the valuation given revenue or NRR or TAM ( total addressable market ) or the growth numbers but based on what you people perceive and understand, do you forsee a huge drop in their stock price or only see a jump from here? ( should have seen the numbers before accepting the offer, but it is still now too late ) If you say growth is what you should look at, any slowdown in growth. Say from 100% to 80% or 100% to 70% results in huge drop in stock prices. Look at Zoom or Roku, even some drop in growth pulls the stock down heavily. Or look at Docusign, revenue continues to go up but growth slowed and stock seems to have been cut by 60%!! Also their CEO and CFO sold large percentage of their portfolio in December. It is a great company with amazing people but I feel too overvalued, unless someone can convince me that it is as awesome as Tesla. Slootman sir might call Buffet/Munger to keep the buy pressure high and keep the stock up but at the end it has to reach a critical mass in revenue and good growth. If the market was so big Oracle wouldn't have been doing $40B in revenue for the last 4 years. If the stock drops is there anything that company would do to keep the TC at a respectable number? YOE : 12 years Current comp : 420k #snowflake #databricks #amazon #google #microsoft #databases
Wait for a discount and join?
So you are saying, wait and watch? Or do you have some hunch on how much discount to expect from here?
Around 130 dollars for the stock. Price to sales ratio is a good metric
Yoe? Title at snowflake?
IC3
Wow IC3 (equiv to Google L5/FB E5 right?) at 550k => doesnt it imply snowflake itself knows its stock is extremely overvalued! No offense, OP! Mind sharing breakup of base/bonus/stock/joining?
It's never too late to back out of an offer. What is your level and YOE? Did you consider any other companies of a similar size?
Hey went through Datadog but liked snow team more ( thought DataDog team was also amazing ), also went through confluent but didn't like the team. Have already informed my team at the current company, what do I say at both places when backing out?
IBM has 75B revenue and 120B valuation. First, you can’t compare revenue multiple for companies in different industry. so exclude Airbnb. It’s reasonable to compare Data dog, Snowflake revenue multiple as they are both in enterprise SaaS. Revenue growth rate, profitability, addressable market and competitive advantage all matters. compare these factors and see if they are over valued compared to other SaaS.
I agree with you not a good comparision with AirBnb but don't have numbers for Exadata or redshift or bigquery with me. Can you suggest what public companies can I compare snowflake with?
There aren't really any good public companies to compare to. Like you said, a good comparison would be BigQuery/Redshift/Azure's DW thing. But those aren't companies so no separate valuation for them. Databricks would be a good comparison, but they're private.
Tc or gtfo
:), updated
Congrats! Which team? Mind sharing confluent offer too?
The general consensus from what i’ve seen is that SNOW has been expensive compared to its peers for a while now, but that rich valuation is justified due to its high growth. it’s literally impossible to predict whether it’ll drop another x% though - in the long run i personally think the stock price will be way higher than it is now, but i wouldn’t be surprised to see huge drops in the near future especially in our current environment with rising rates.
Well said and has become true to some extent. What’s your thought on abnb stock?
From what I hear, the hyperscalars are coming after data warehouse market aggressively. Any hint of bigquery or redshift impacting snowflake revenue and it will drop 50 precent in a single day. In other words it's priced for perfection, so you are right to be concerned.
hyperscalars - never heard this word before. What are you referring to?
Aws gcp azure
you should look at their yoy growth, not just revenue. Stock is about future, not present.
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