Tech IndustryNov 27, 2023
Googlehcbd

OpenAI and other LLM startups NO money

There are insane number of startups that are built on LLMs. They all call either OpenAI, Anthropic, Huggingface etc. The one problem is that although it solves real problems, it is quite replaceable. To switch from A to B, it doesn’t require more than 1 minute (just api key change) so rest of the startups built on LLM can easily switch to better performing ones. Given this, eventually either one LLM product that has the most superior quality will win all, although it will be extremely competitive to remain as the top as startups will keep on measuring the performance and switch. Either that, they will be similar and come down to price war (whoever that has the lowest cost per token) will take all, which will make it super difficult to get profits. The lowest cost offering may be less than the electricity bill + NVIDIA GPU cost that are used to go into LLM. For that reason, I believe OpenAI and all these startups will eventually either get acquired or go bankrupt (imagine balance sheet of 10B revenue and 10B cost and they will grow together with no profits) this is why OpenAI says they are nonprofit because it will never eventually be profitable 😆 It is an amazing tech but the futures are pretty defined (it will happen sooner or later) #Google, #Meta, #OpenAI #Apple #Microsoft #Netflix #NVIDIA #Amazon

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seatownj Nov 27, 2023

In my opinion. Government just takes control of patents. They’ll wait to see who develops the best and then it’ll become a government agency.

Meta nihaocacao Nov 27, 2023

You can make same case for AWS vs Google cloud vs on site

Google hcbd OP Nov 27, 2023

You have no idea how much work is involved in switching cloud providers

Meta nihaocacao Nov 27, 2023

I have an idea, it’s a lot, and still people do this for the right incentives and still cloud providers are viable businesses with good margins in a long run

Apple HBEZ274 Nov 27, 2023

This is the united states. All companies will either be acquired, or if they can manage to raise enough cash to fight off the vultures, become the acquirer.

Amazon 36;):)!/ Nov 27, 2023

Switching cost is not that low. The prompts are different between Anthropic and GPT4, fine tuning (if there is any) will also need to happen again, and need to be done differently (eg different data mix) depending on how the model performs

Bloomberg RedRomeo28 Nov 27, 2023

Really depends on how much stuff they built on top LLM to improve.

Confluent 47d8696fc Nov 28, 2023

Satya: 🤫

Microsoft rkWkoiRkR Nov 28, 2023

I think the wrapper startups that are built on top of these LLM providers are the ones in actual danger. They are giving free fodder to these big players (just like Apps did for iOS and Android 10 years back).