About three months ago, when improved inflation data started to come in, I told people on Blind it was time to BUY A HOUSE in the Bay Area, especially in the South Bay Google-Apple-Nvidia-Netflix Golden Triangle. I told people that they could get ahead of the curve because the inflation data has just come out, only some banks had started slashing mortgage rates it was so early — and not everyone had connected the dots yet that lower inflation would eventually lower the federal funds rates, and just the anticipation of that would make mortgage rates drop, tech stocks rise, and tech housing prices soar. Some people accused me of being a real estate agent, and I explained, I am trying to share information and save people hundreds of thousands of dollars. Some people were open minded and said, maybe, let’s see — and I said, let’s revisit this in three months and see if this was good advice. Well, it’s been two and a half months and let’s see what’s happened. I have been telling people to buy NVDA for almost a year, and people said “sell at 400”. Some people even said “short sell at 400,” and I said, AI is going to be the biggest tech boom ever and I am holding all my NVDA (I tried buying more options but the stock kept rising so rapidly). Then NVDA passed 500, then it passed 600, now it is the high 600s and if you’d taken my advice you could have made hundreds of thousands of dollars. Then people talked about what AI stock to buy if they thought NVDA was too expensive and I said I still liked NVDA but if I had to pick second I’d pick MSFT and if I had to pick a third I’d pick AMD. And in the past 9 months MSFT is up 42% and AMD is up 78%. When housing hit a second lull last summer, and starter homes in west san jose that were a bit tired were going for 1.6-1.7M again, I said it was a great opportunity if you had the cash/large down payment (because interest rates were very high) and people said I must be a real estate broker or whatever and I said no, I am just trying to save people hundreds of thousands of dollars. Then when the inflation data came out, some only partially-updated homes in West San Jose were still going for 1.8-1.9, and I said people should get out there quickly and look for bargains, and people said no the economy was going to collapse and become an endless desert and everyone was going to be laid off and the tech industry was doomed and I said, let’s revisit this in 3 months. In the past 3 months, there have been some layoffs, including heartbreaking ones at PayPal, but Apple stock has risen another 8%, Google stock is up about 13%, Netflix is up 28%, and NVDA rose another 53%. It’s not the 2020 job market and some mature companies will continue to lay off, but companies are clearly gearing up to hire overall. The 10 year bond has dropped more than half a percent from 4.6% to 4.09%, and the starter homes In West San Jose are now running 2M-2.3M depending on how many renovations they have, and the small, fixer uppers in Cupertino went from 2.2 to 2.6+ and I see places in Los Gatos and Saratoga going 500k+ over asking again. So what are my predictions for 2024 now? One of the big global stories is the economic slowdown in China. When they shut down factories for a loooong time, there were shortages, prices soared, and inflation was terrible, but also a lot of buyers switched to other manufacturers in Vietnam, India and elsewhere. Now China is in a terrible economic situation — President Xi may not last this — because China’s youth unemployment is at a high rate associated with failing states. China’s logical response has been to build, build, build products for sale, glutting warehouses, and they are trying to re-win over their former customers by dropping prices. What this means for the US is that inflation really should be over, and there will be plentiful goods at lower and lower prices. The only reason prices have be not dropped even more in the US is services inflation (restaurants, hotels, etc.) and that is driven in part by “revenge pricing” by companies seeing what they can get away with, and the need for more people to enter the workforce. What we can do on this front is don’t patronize places with rip off prices!! There are no shortages of food, silverware, plates, pillows anymore, so if a place is still ripping you off, look around for another business that is a better value and I bet you will find one. With continued dropping inflation, mortgage rates are going to drop a lot, tech stocks are going to continue to rise (some segments, like iPhone sales in China, are being affected), and I still say, the AI boom is still going to be the biggest tech boom ever and I still don’t think people get how big it is going to be. Sure, tens of thousands of NVDA employees should be multimillionaires, but they will need many tens of thousands more employees to defend their moat. Eventually, employees will leave OpenAI and NVDA and Google and there will be a whole new generation of startups and mega companies that emerge. Hardware is the beginning of a tech shift, not the end, like cpus to pcs, networking equipment to the web, and iPhones to apps. We are at just the beginning of AI Valley. So for one, yes, I still think if people have a down payment and reasonable job security, if people dream of owning a single family home in the heart of AI Valley, they should hurry, because interest rates are going to drop a lot more and then it’s just going to get harder and harder and the idea of a single family home for non-executives will disappear. My guess is by 2026 the idea of a non-executive owning a single family home in the golden triangle will be over. Everyone else will get a condo or drive from further out. Look at New York City, if you didn’t inherit a place in Manhattan, you take a subway into work. In Apple’s latest earnings call, Tim Cook said of AI: “As we look ahead, we will continue to invest in these and other technologies that will shape the future. That includes artificial intelligence, where we continue to spend a tremendous amount of time and effort, and we're excited to share the details of our ongoing work in that space later this year.” So it’s coming. Soon. Apple usually lets their product launches do the talking so I think really big things are coming from Apple. I think we are just going to see more and more ways AI can transform people’s lives and when people see it, more and more industries will realize they need to transform themselves. Like how the internet affected every industry, but AI will be bigger.
Ok?
Three months ago, i said on my posts, i will post again in 3 months revisiting my predictions, so I’m revisiting them. I hate it when people make crazy claims, then they disappear and change user names afterwards.
Please teach me more. How can someone with a low amount of capital make use of this situation?
r/iamsosmart Bro you work at paypal, if you actually could predict things you’d be running a hedge fund.. Not wasting time on blind
Which chatbot did you use?
Cool story bro
Bay Area real estate to the floor
OP is an idiot.. if he was/is so sure about Nvidia, why didn’t he buy long dated options and FIRE .. still stuck at a cog in tech .
Yeah dude, I bought a lot of NVDA. I looked at buying a bunch of short term options but the stock rose too rapidly. The challenge with getting long dated options with a hot stock like NVDA is that when a stock is super hot, the options are expensive and you don’t get a ton of leverage. But anyway, although of course I wished I had gotten more, I am doing just fine.
Post in investopia on Slack what stocks we should be buying next
No inventory
Tldr?
Cool story