The past one year tech layoffs stole the show and markets shrugged them off by boosting stock prices. But an interesting study by Enrico Moretti points to one tech job equating to five jobs in service economy, both skilled and unskilled, suggesting that the recent Goldman, Disney, and McDonald’s layoffs are the start of the fan-out effect from tech layoffs. https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-multiplier-effect-of-innovation-jobs/ If this is the case, perhaps the Bureau of labor statistics should revise how unemployment numbers are factored in to compensate for the fan-out that is coming. Otherwise we may be significantly undercounting right now. TC: 200k
Bank drawdowns are HUGE the last four quarters and credit card debt is climbing fast. When consumers can’t spend anymore, service industry will crash suddenly and hard
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Tech (capital intensive and interest rate sensitive) is the first casualty of de-dollarization.
I'm very curious about this de-dollarization narrative. Why are we so confident that the USD is on the way out? Because a bunch of frenemies formed a group? It's going to be very hard to unseat the king. Honestly I think the only thing that will force de-dollarization is a war
There is already a war. It's called WW3, which has been ongoing since 2014.