Disclaimer: I don’t have any insider info about layoffs, but there is a strong possibility of one in the near future for Software Engineers in tech companies (my personal views). tl;dr: avoid "epxerimental" stuff and don't be a slacker == Theoritical possibility == Its a common knowledge now that tech companies can survive with minimal damage even after RIF of 10-20%, especially until we have employers market. Any large scale RIF, similar to what Twitter (now X) did is definetely bad. So, as long as you're not an outlier, there is less risk of damage. Since many companies are still laying off, it's very much possilbe that lot more companies start laying off Engineers anytime. Basically companies only have upside with layoffs (to some extent). Looking at last year's data from https://layoffs.fyi/, November and January were the months with large number of layoffs, so it's possible to see similar trend this year. Economy hasn't improved by large margin, hiring is still slow, and there are no string indicators that hiring pace in tech industry will improve anytime soon (I hope I am wrong here). == So, let’s talk about why layoffs are needed? == With slowed down hiring, the promotions are continuing to keep the strong peformers happy. The side-effect is that average level of engineers is increasing, and SWEs are not getting enough level appropriate work, causing some dissatisfaction. It's not uncommon to hear about SWE about not getting enough interesting work . Companies are slowing down promos at higher level, but that's not sufficient to solve this problem. To bring the universe to balance, companies need to layoff more of the senior+ talent, that will help reduce costs and fix the junior:senior swe ratio. == Who will be targeted? == From the previous note, you may have got the hint that Senior+ folks will be impacted the most. But given that they are generally the most critical engineers, the layoff decision has to be dominated by performance. The earlier layoffs were performance based in some cases, and this will become more and more likely in the future. Anecdotally people who just got promoted also got laid-off, so it's hard to decode the exact criteria, but performance was defintetely an input. Additionally, there is more focus on the PIP across the board to trim down the fat. == How to avoid getting laid off? == Simple answer is make sure your level and impact is correlated. Easier said than done. You need to understand how your impact is measured in your org, and excel on those numbers. Remember "What gets measured gets managed" - if it's pull-request count, you need to keeo that high, understand the P&L of your department etc. Note that some of the factors will not be in your direct control, but try to avoid "epxerimental" stuff and don't be a slacker. L5 SWE, 10 yoe TC: 350k
This would have been helpful 18 months ago. It’s been a fucking bloodbath for everyone - where have you been?
You’re not wrong. Meta has started hiring again, and many people around me recently seem delusional that layoffs are over.
Not everyone
Good analysis. I’d say low performance coupled with high salary is the simplest criteria for showing the door.
Yeah I know I’m next. I’m ready
There are no high salaries in salesforce …. Oh wait!!!!
This is totally wrong. No chance layoffs repeat the November-December pattern of last year. That was a direct effect of interest rate shocks in early 2022 combined with equity (stocks) dropping up until October 2022. Stocks are corrected now and we have more stability from the Fed / some light at the end of the tunnel with rate hikes.
I truly hope you’re right
We haven't been in a recession yet which at this point is necessary to break inflation which in turn is necessary for fed to cut rates. So OP is on point. Worst is not over yet. The longer the rates stay high, more and more businesses will go bankrupt due to lack of funding driven by borrowing costs increasing chances of a deep recession. Gas prices / OPEC supply cuts aren't helping right with inflation.
When is Google’s next layoff? I’m so stressed every day
Chill. Expecting this is worse than it actually happening. Because u expect it everyday until it happens... If at all...
I left Meta because I was stressed by the apparition of this spooky layoff situation. Looking back, I was just stressing for no real reason, all thanks to Blind
It's already happening. Huge reorgs with whole teams being moved to different offices. Employees are given the option to move, but many won't/can't move to a different country to follow their job.
This is pseudo layoff!! Which doesn't get metiones on news outlets. My gut feels is that impact of pseudo layoff could be higher than 12k Jan layoff
Move to a different country? What
No matter what you do layoffs are inevitable, 1. projects that are not profitable get shutdown 2. Satellite offices close 3. Profitable projects are moved to low cost labor countries 4. High performers are expensive due to their RSU/salaries What can you do ? Nothing. assume it can happen any day and have emergency funds for at least 6 months of expenses
6 months? 1 year in this environment but keep half in HYSA
Great post
Source: trust me bro
That’s literally the disclaimer at the top of the post meant to say 😀
Point blank, if you say "trust me bro" and your peers do not believe you, then it's your reputation you need to work on. I did use the "trust me bro" argument last time with tech coworkers and that was enough to convince them, so my rep is solid. On top of that all went better than expected. A bro trusted a bro and the job got done ( that sounded ghey now when it typed it out, but whatever I dont care what others think, I'm better than most of y'all anyway)
To be honest, i dont even care anymore, all this layoff talks are on going from last oct end, its almost a year now, and going by this post will continue for 6 more months, at this point i am immune to it, even if the shit hits the roof there are ao many other sectors where if you slog 12 hours a day you will make a living out of it, at this point companies are just bullying employees
Should we unionize?
@sggen 100% we should unionize. It's the only way to negotiate a fairer share of the profits of our labor.
The definition of slack is subjective. Middle management is a slacker imo. No wonder how much you do in current env, things could go wrong. Just make your peace that layoffs are a part and parcel .
+1, they will be targeted too. With fewer engineers we need fewer managers
We need a lot fewer managers than engineers.