Having lived through 2 tech bubbles popping, we have ways to go. The big companies have laid of barely 5% of their employees and this is just the tip of the iceberg. Here's what's coming 1. Startups haven't laid off in massive numbers yet. That will happen in Q1-Q3 this year. 2. At least 100 startups with 100 or more employees will go under. 3. Overall spending on everything has started going down as people lose jobs and run out of savings. That will affect tech companies that provide the backbone to companies from all sectors. Spending on travel, food, luxuries, houses, remodeling, cars have all started going down. But they have gone down only 10% after going up 60-70% in the past 18 months. This is going to trigger a classic recession in the next few months. The turnaround will likely be in Q1/Q2 2024. But I want to reiterate that the tech layoffs have barely started. The snowfall effect of tech layoffs has just begun. More will follow. (Check Noom and IBM today) Companies that are likely to announce new/more layoffs in the next 1-6 months. 1. Microsoft (more) 2. Amazon (more) 3. Docusign 4. Walmart (tech) 5. Tmobile 6. Chewy 7. Affirm/Upstart/ Fintech startups: Expect one or more companies to go under. 8. More than a 100 startups in the Austin/bay area/LA area/ Seattle area 9. Expedia and AirBNB (yes, you heard it here. Travel has reversed and will only get worse). 10. Uber. 11. Qualtrics. 12. The Trade Desk The good news is that these companies will emerge better capitalized on the other side of the recession, barring the startups that will shut doors. I am saying this as an experienced tech veteran and now an entrepreneur who relies on tech and products from a lot of the above companies. Business spending has gone down. Biz pricing power has diminished and the consumer spending hit has not hit these companies yet. The strongest signal of the above is when Amazon report earnings next week. They will show a weak consumer and weak/declining AWS spending across the board. I am sharing my thoughts and hope to proven wrong because my business will suffer too. However, objective reality says otherwise. Hang in there everyone.
If you’re so confident, put your money where your mouth and play the market. You can FIRE and delete Blind 🙏
It’s always the same with these types. “How did everyone not see this coming it was so obvious.” Uhhhhh ok so I’m sure you loaded up on puts and retired then right?
Actually you can't delete blind 🤣
Prediction for India?
Sorry. No idea. This is US based tech only.
My guess is at least 30% of tech companies will layoff at least 20% of employees. Is this too conservative?
Very good prediction. Not everyone is smart like you to guess your TC. Posting it will help.
My business is just 14 months old. TC is approximately $420 K for 2022.
I don't see why it's relevant. You don't even know where he works.
What about apple?
Sorry again. I am only sharing based on what I know/have seen through publicly available information and trends. Don't want to comment on other companies.
Apple has a massive contractor contingent… they will empty those buildings before letting FTE go.
With layoffs directly translating into loss of paid users, Atlassian will soon join this list
There are vague indications internally already. The cofounders have a cult going on with middle management. So, strong denial of this until it happens, I guess
What indicators?
You forgot Apple. If customer spending reduces then no one is going to upgrade to a new iPhone, AirPods or buy a new MacBook. This will bring their revenues down as well
Isn't Apple sitting on a fat stack of cash rn
So was Google and you saw what happened last week, right?
Possible, but too many ppl anticipating a negative scenario now. And they're getting ready for it, possibly facilitating a soft landing. Bad recessions hit when some black swan (unexpected) catalyst to the downside suddenly hits. And if inflation tempers in the next 6 mos, plenty of ammo for the fed to now lower interest rates if the economy needs it.
Don't agree. Equity market is priced for a soft landing. Bond market disagrees and is smarter. Private markets have not had a reduction in valuation. BoJ could screw up getting out of yield-curve-control. That is a grey swan waiting to happen.
BoJ ?
And I can't help but notice you listed all public companies. LoL. Talking your (short) book or your shopping list you want to buy on the cheap?
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Women, help me understand why this is inspirational
What about Smartsheet?
Sorry. No idea. I have only shared companies which I do business with and where I have connections.
I don’t think Docu will layoff. They are actually hiring. Their valuation got cut, and they already did layoffs