I am seeing that Uber Long Call is for sale at 645 per contract for 38 strike price. Stock price right now is 35 and expiry date for this option is Jan 2021 I am pretty confident that Uber has fallen a lot already and stock will definitely cross 50 in 1.5 years time which is very long time. If that happens then money that can be made on this trade is around 85 percent. Any other upside movement will be good anyways. What do you think? Is it too difficult for uber market cap to go more than 80 bn in 1.5 years? Currently it is valued at 60 bn. Planning to invest big chunk of money on this but need to know what's your opinion.
Cool story bro
Thanks, you think it's a buy or sell?
Solid sell. Planning to take short positions closer to the end of the employee lock in period. Outside of the avocado kale smoothie yoga pants SF crowd and the NY equivalent, I see zero customer stickiness. Full discourse: I'm holding a tiny long position right now.
Did you know that employees are still in lockup period? Shit is going to flame to the bottom
When does the lock up period end? That's a good point
Lyfts lock up expired today and it did not impact their stock price. I think your strategy is solid
Looks like average price target by wall street analysts for 1 year is 53.70 and expiration of option is in 1.5 year so even better
Analysts know sh**
What's your gut feeling for uber
Gut feeling? You trade options on gut feeling? Go play roulette. I’m confident it has a good likelihood. Almost 50% with 100% upside.
One big risk I can think of is if the overall market goes into recession mode
That’s literally the least worry
What's uber people thought on this. How is the inside atmosphere. Positive or negative
No touch until after lockup
Someone mentioned that uber lock up Period ended today and stock didnt go down
Lyft not UBER
Seems good enough idea since you have 1.5 year time left. But don't go all at once. Also if market is not in good shape because trade war .etc. it doesn't matter how much Uber stock has fallen it will still go down and also note that their lockup period will expire soon. So it might fall even after. So be prepared to buy more calls at that time if needed
Many are not gonna sell. Mainly because they joined at a 48.77 preferred price and what to be made whole. Also most live in SF and are making big bucks anyway and don’t need to sell at lockup.
Yeah. It's possible that many will not sell because it's valuation was hyped. But there is still a possibility that people will sell. That is why I suggested not go all at once.
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Wouldn’t bet too much on a company that might never be able to make a profit
I thought they can by increasing the ride price slightly.
Then folks would just switch to Lyft.