A very advanced AI offers you a choice: A) $1000 plus a box that MAY contain $1mil B) Just the box that MAY contain $1mil The AI has done a complete psychological profile on you based on all data recorded about you anywhere as well as your performance on a thorough psych test. If the AI predicts you will choose to take only the box then the box contains $1mil. If it predicts you will choose to take both, then the box is empty. The box is now sitting in front of you and the AI can no longer change what's in it. It seems that you would get the most by choosing A, since what's done is done, but then if you are the type of person who would do that... Which do you pick?
The easiest way to be the kind of person who takes only the million dollar box is to take only the million dollar box.
Just flip a coin.
Talk about TC or something please. Not AI and shit like that.
Wouldn’t this be more interesting if it were $100k?
Would it change your answer?
I mean yes. I bet a lot of us don’t really care about $1k.
Bonus questions: Does your vote in this poll, which would presumably be known to the AI, change your decision? Would you have voted differently if you had thought about that before voting?
Why can’t I just unplug the AI and take the money
Just try it. Our little Maven will murder you with lasers.
Never tell me the odds
Can't tell if this is genius or stupid. It must be genius and I'm just stupid
Assume the AI is not completely all knowing: As long as there’s at least a 0.1% chance of the box having 1M, it’s worth only taking the box. The poll is 38% box only, presumably the chance you will be profiled at box only is at least 10%. Even with a 90% fraudulent machine rate it’s still a +EV move to only take one box. Assume the AI is advanced enough to cheat you as well. The AI has no incentive to correctly predict people’s psychological profiles - it would rather just say “everyone wants box + 1K, this I pay out no one”. Or just “conveniently” there is a bug where everyone happens to be profiled as greedy. You have to consider the context as well. If this is a new crypto or a Blind post it’s possible that the chance of fraud exceeds 99.9%. If it’s a regulated casino in Vegas then probably there won’t be as much cheating. By the way this is why people would rather have 100% chance of $100K than 99.9% chance of $120K. It’s “obviously better” to have the second choice, but when you consider this is the real world and you may be lied to, it’s better to take the first one because you have immediate recourse and breach of contract, whereas proving fraud in the latter requires a complicated statistical proof and you may have no way.
Pass me the blunt bro
😂