I was reading 270towin.com, looking at the paths each candidate had to win, and then comparing with the polls from 538. These paths only focus on swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. One path for Trump to win is: Georgia, Arizona and Michigan. According to 538, he has a lead of around 3% in these states (the other states are closer to a coin flip). So, does this mean Trump is the favorite as of now? I am leaving the legal issues aside for the sake of this discussion. Why isn’t this being covered more prominently in the news? Do you think Trump will overperform or underperform the polls? Edit: Vote about who will win, based on the numbers. Don’t vote based on who you like more or less 🤣! #elections #president
Biden, because the majority doesn't want a federal ban on abortion.
Could give two 💩 about it when we are fighting bigger things.
Ask a woman who is forced to keep a baby she doesn't want what's more important
Trump and I can vote. I voted Biden last time. Makes me sick to my stomach.
Trump has the best shot at this unless he opens his mouth and shoots into his own foot. Georgia is not really a swing state, it had a few flips due to Trumpism, but otherwise it’s solid RED. He could win AZ, and NV. Biden has too many things going against him 1. His “Bidenism” - seeming lost most of the times 2. Afghanistan shameful pull out 3. Inflation and house affordability (despite that not being his fault a 100% but incumbency factor) 4. Massive illegal immigration and porous border. 5. Violence, crime and dilapidated state of blue cities especially in NY and CA. 6. Kamala turns more people off than on. 7. Their forceful “green” ways rather than trying to solve fundamental problems like electricity shortages, grid support, overall lifespan of an electric car, etc. 8. Forceful vaccination using a vaccine on which there is no long term impact study, and Fauci’s lies which Biden peddled. 9. Wars all over the world with US being seen as a pathetic, incapable, incompetent, mute!
Out of your personal list of grievances, only 3, 4 and 9 are actual issues still in play in 2024. No one remembers or talks about Afghanistan or Kamala except solid red voters who don't matter here. Even Biden stans are irrelevant. The only folks that actually matter are the independents in the few swing states
How is the shame brought on the US army in Afghanistan “my personal list of grievances”? How so many US defense personnel were dismissed due to non compliance with an unproven vax mandate “my personal list of grievances”? How is Kamala’s poor record and approval rating “my personal list of grievances”? The failed Green New Deal and the California’s power shortages are not “my personal list of grievances”. How is rampant violence, looting of stores, homelessness and druggies all over California and NYC “my personal list of grievances”? You do understand that what you consider my personal list of grievances are concerns for the centrists? Probably not so much for the left and the right, but as we speak about swing states. Dismissing them as someone’s personal grievances are what will cost Democrats the election the next time, as the centrists are who decide the swing state results.
I think you can assume that Georgia & Arizona will swing back towards Trump this time. That leaves the 3 swing states in Midwest, just like in 2016 & 2020. I think Wisconsin will be the closest of those 3 this time.
Blind has majority Indians who are right leaning, so mostly trump will win this poll
Also note that there are criminal cases pending against Trump, so some of that might be fresh in public memory come November-2024
@mozilla how many of the criminal cases have actually gone to trial? Trump's trying to play the clock, like any sensible defendant would do given the potential for what will be revealed during trial
Have you seen the prosecution's evidence or how the grand jury made the decision to indict?
The Dems are like George Costanza - they’ll bite, eye gouge, hair pull… it’s tough to beat such an opponent
Curious, among the people who voted, how many can actually vote. I have noticed a pattern where Blind immigrants are a lot more Republican-leaning than other groups. Do you agree? What’s driving this preference?
It isn't uncommon for richer folks (Blind members are definitely wealthier than the average American) to support conservative leaning candidates (Trump's wealth leaning though lol). Also, many saw how veering too left impacted their cities particularly after the George Floyd protests.
Because of majority of immigrants are from China and India , both of them have authoritarian governments in power. (You could check how much India has slipped in individual freedom index , press freedom index , corruption etc recently), so I guess these immigrants admire Trump who has authoritarian vibes.