How does Baidu compare? Have heard good things about them from friends working in the AV field. Unsure what to think of that, though.
lmao there's many players left, but Cruise & Waymo are the clear leaders by a large, large margin.
I think there is plenty of room for multiple "winners"
I define "winner" as leader in market share, and it's unusual for it to be close.
Anybody winning would be an automatic win for the rest
Define “win”.
Leader in market share.
Depends on the definition of “win”. Both Cruise and Waymo are running driverless operations which is already a win. Cruise has an edge on scaling because of GM
Not convinced Cruise has any edge on scaling just because of GM honestly
Yeah, Cruise, hitting dogs, blocking first responders, breaking down in intersections, etc, etc, etc... they're doing great. What wins for humanity! LMFAO.
Like someone stated above, there is room for multiple winners. This isn't a one-takes-all kind of business. Cruise & Waymo are leading the way right now, but this is a marathon and not a sprint. All these companies are also one big crash or fatal accident away from setting them (and the entire industry) back several years.
Nah, too much lobbying power, they'll just sweep it under the rug like all the other stupid shit robotaxis have done so far.
5. No one
I think Mercedes might come in and win. They value safety more than Tesla and already have the means to scale as a car manufacturer.
Their software team barely exists in that regard and NVIDIA does all the work. Doubting.
They can preach all they want about safety until they have a product. It's not like tesla doesn't care about human lives. They're trying to improve their software.
Waymo most likely, though they're slow and bureaucratic. Cruise is closing in on Waymo, but they're sloppy and have a toxic culture. Zoox is behind the 2 leaders by a clear margin but still in the game. They have Amazon financial backing and soon a large amount of last-mile delivery revenue with Amazon.
This
Cruise is toxic AF.
It’s still anyone’s race. How are you defining winner? Tesla can very well dominate the driver assist market and have amazing margins doing so (they sell for 15k each). Mobileye is also generating 2bil+ in revenue annually. Tesla and mobileye’s approach is intriguing - tesla/mobileye can very well chip away slowly until software technology catches up, to the point of proving that they can remove the driver entirely. It’s the approach of “sell what we have and generate revenue now and tech will ultimately catch up”. If Tesla or mobileye can prove that this approach works, then they truly deserve to beat all the competition and go for the jugular. Teslas progress as of recent has been impressive, though will they ever be confident to remove the driver? Only time will tell. Very hard to say, though of course the obvious answer at this point in time is Waymo (most rides per week and largest ODD) - but until Waymo has undisputed industry leading margins (cost per mile <0.5cents), and at scale (2mil+ rides weekly), it’s anyone’s game to win. 🍿
Essentially this, when I wrote my first comment. I think it’s more likely Tesla gets there before Zoox does
Yea, people keep saying Tesla is not in the league or in the competition - but I reckon Tesla is driving as good as Waymo was 3-4 years ago, which is really not much of a head start for Waymo given where Waymo is today in that short amount of time. I reckon self driving progress in tech *might* be very similar to the computer, or the phone. Is Waymo’s approach synonymous to “spending time building a gigantic computer that fits the entire size of a room” which, as time has shown, was greatly obsolete in a matter of years? Only time will tell.
Waymo then cruise. It’s not even close. Then from there probably Tesla honestly then Zoox
Tesla is very much not in the same league as any of these other companies. They're not a competitor.
I think you’re half right half wrong about that honestly. If you know half a thing about autonomous. Read the comments below on the main thread