King County was the first place hit by the virus in the US, and the first to go into a lockdown. They didn't report any data yesterday so today's data includes two days. The % given is the growth in the last seven days, so 100% means doubling in a week. Here are the numbers: Date Cases 7 day weekly 02/29 4 - 03/01 10 03/02 14 03/03 21 03/04 31 03/05 51 03/06 58 03/07 71 1675% 03/08 83 730% 03/09 116 729% 03/10 190 805% 03/11 234 655% 03/12 270 429% 03/13 328 466% 03/14 388 446% 03/15 420 406% 03/16 488 321% 03/17 518 173% 03/18 562 140% 03/19 693 157% 03/20 793 142% 03/21 934 141% 03/22 1040 148% 03/23 1170 140% 03/24 1277 147% 03/25 1359 142% 03/26 1577 128% 03/27 1828 131% 03/28 2077 122% 03/29 2159 108% 03/30 2330 99% 04/01 2496 84% Deaths Date Deaths 7d % 02/29 1 03/01 2 03/02 5 03/03 8 03/04 9 03/05 10 03/06 11 03/07 15 700% 03/08 17 300% 03/09 20 188% 03/10 22 156% 03/11 26 170% 03/12 27 155% 03/13 32 140% 03/14 35 118% 03/15 37 100% 03/16 43 105% 03/17 46 92% 03/18 56 111% 03/19 60 103% 03/20 66 97% 03/21 74 105% 03/22 75 88% 03/23 87 96% 03/24 94 86% 03/25 100 73% 03/26 109 74% 03/27 125 80% 03/28 136 83% 03/29 141 76% 03/30 150 67% 04/01 164 59% So that looks like it's slowing down to me! Still growing fast, still potentially exponential, but the rate of growth is reducing.
I hope you understand how a Bayesian plot looks like. This looks like that.
If the rate of growth is slowing, it's not in exponential mode. Good news though.
Well, the exponent might simply be smaller or it may have become linear. Not enough data points to be able to tell the difference.
Washington was not first to impose stay at home
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https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus The official website says there is 5900 cases as of today
That's all of WA, drill down to King County