From King County press releases. The % is the growth over the prior 7 days, 100% means it doubled in exactly 7 days. Date Cases 7 day % 02/29 4 - 03/01 10 03/02 14 03/03 21 03/04 31 03/05 51 03/06 58 03/07 71 1675% 03/08 83 730% 03/09 116 729% 03/10 190 805% 03/11 234 655% 03/12 270 429% 03/13 328 466% 03/14 388 446% 03/15 420 406% 03/16 488 321% 03/17 518 173% 03/18 562 140% 03/19 693 157% 03/20 793 142% 03/21 934 141% 03/22 1040 148% 03/23 1170 140% 03/24 1277 147% 03/25 1359 142% 03/26 1577 128% 03/27 1828 131% Deaths Date Deaths 7 day % 02/29 1 03/01 2 03/02 5 03/03 8 03/04 9 03/05 10 03/06 11 03/07 15 700% 03/08 17 300% 03/09 20 188% 03/10 22 156% 03/11 26 170% 03/12 27 155% 03/13 32 140% 03/14 35 118% 03/15 37 100% 03/16 43 105% 03/17 46 92% 03/18 56 111% 03/19 60 103% 03/20 66 97% 03/21 74 105% 03/22 75 88% 03/23 87 96% 03/24 94 86% 03/25 100 73% 03/26 109 74% 03/27 125 80% Yes yes the cases are influenced by how much they test so pay more attention to the deaths. I provided both just because.
Were you expecting cases and deaths to *not* slow down by social distancing?
I'm just keeping an eye on it. Ultimately it's that trend that will determine when I can get out of jail, aka, quarantine so, I watch it hoping and hoping. I would have liked to see a greater reduction. It's still exponential growth, just doubling in 8-10 days instead of 5-7. [ Doubling period is 7/(7 day %) ]
Tested positives lag actual new infections, because it takes 5 days to show symptoms. If tested positives are doubling in 10 days, true infections will be doubling much slower (say, 20 days). If R0 went below one, we would still see doubling of numbers at slowing rates for a couple of weeks.
So the measure we’ve put in place work, but it takes 5-10 days to work.
Deaths would be even more lagged. It's 5-14 days to show symptoms and more like 15-21 days to die. HOPEFULLY we will see a big drop in deaths. MAYBE that started in 3/22 but we need to see how is goes.
My social distancing is working! I'm saving lives, y'all!
Thanks. Doesn’t seem to slow down as fast