This is so simple. On analysis of 2016 vs now in battleground states : #elections #uspolitics #politics BIDEN needs to flip (Wisconsin AND Michigan AND Pennsylvania) to win(max 278 - 260). Rest of the state's will be same as 2016, regardless of the polls and the hype. What am I missing?
In the last 10 elections plenty of states have changed sides, so not sure why you think they are constant
This will give you a better perspective on how often many states change in either direction: https://www.270towin.com/historical-presidential-elections/timeline/
Ya, don't look at last 10 elections(it's not relevant) - 2 at most and you will find the pattern - there are only a handful of states chaging since last 10 years .
So with 2 points you find a pattern. Someone did not take statistics in college
I wouldn't reach to conclusions too soon. I took the abstract stats modelling thesis series at Uni. First Rule: Never benchmark your data on something that is so archaic, that it is not relevant anymore. The demography and dynamics have changed in the US over the last 20 years. The people who voted then are not the same who vote now. Come November, we will let the results talk.
Flarrida?
Flarridah - I am split. Yes, that's Mar A Lago land - President's favorite golf place and International convention center. The state had done a good job at covid containment (initially), but, lately had covid numbers rapidly go up giving Mr. Biden a spot. But it should not be hard state to win for red, if dealt right. Good one to watch, though.
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Some polls suggest Biden is up 8-10% in AZ. If he wins AZ he only has to win WI & MI (ok to lose PA, OH, FL, NC). So that's another scenario. Given the recent alleged comments in vets and how that was tied to McCain, this is a plausible scenario; although still tough for Biden to win AZ. Hilary lost MI by under 11K votes last time, so winning MI is doable for Biden IMO. WI : I have no idea, especially with the Kenoshia issue and how it's politicised by both parties.