Jamie Dimon during JPM earnings said Consumer is really strong and not showing signs of weakness. Wells Fargo despite missing EPS, and taking on 100 million more in allowance for credit loss than they expected, their CEO and CFO told us, “No meaningful deterioration in the consumer. Credit quality remains strong.” In the last few months, all quartiles of income saw their median checking account balances go and not down. We’re not seeing the degradation of consumer balances in their checking accounts we would ordinarily expect in a recession. With all the warnings of a recession in the last 7 months, we have not seen negative growth in consumer spending. People continue to spend… Inflation expectations in the bond market has been plummeting. Which is critical to what the federal reserve does. When the June inflation expectations showed it was going to go higher than what the feds had expected they hiked 75 bps because they need the consumer and market’s expectations to remain anchored. The 1yr exp was 5.3% but it came in at 5.2% which is really good. A direction we want to go. And the 5-10yr came in at 2.8%. Not only are consumer expectations stable but they’re declining. Consumers prevent us from falling into a recession maybe that means we’ve bottomed in the stock market?? Also bad news have not really been affecting the market. That horrendous CPI read from June, did not affect the market… Markets tend to bottom on bad news, and I’m predicting that it’s up from here. Thoughts? PS: I don’t know too much, go easy on me in the comments. TC: 50/hr intern
All of what you said would probably be priced in so we don’t know
Friday’s action could be a start. Think about it, a day after the worst cpi ever and we rally the next day, closing flat on the week.
We just started going down.. Enjoy the ride.
Care to elaborate?
TBH, nobody on blind knows exactly. I have seen many times people here predict things so confidently and those predictions don’t come true. As the saying goes — everybody is an expert in a bull market.
That’s fair
The US overplayed their hand in Ukraine, & a large proportion of the world's population just shifted from the dollar to other currencies. This means that a significant amount of the resources the US has been extracting from exploited countries will also dry up, leaving corporations looking for other ways to extract profit. Meanwhile, the US has over 20 million newly disabled people from the pandemic that they won't try and slow. This is going to have ramifications for the next generation. We're seeing supply chains getting worse daily, gas prices going up, inflation isn't slowing, the reliability of a huge piece of US infrastructure, air travel, has gone from 96% on time to 74% this year. These are signs of a dying empire.
Supply chains is a global issue not just the US. Everything else in that second paragraph is just shit that happens when inflation is high. Which countries shifted from the dollar to other currencies? If these are signs of a dying empire, who’s taking over next? Because every other top countries’s economies are worst. Russia, China and etc… Europe alreaady declared that a recession will happen there.
It would be different if it was only the US going through this right now but it’s literally the entire world my friend.
Reverse blind!
I think I was right, we have bottomed.
Good
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The prestigious poll posts offer more value than these types of posts. Hmm lemme look at my crystal ball and let u know what it says.. No one knows jackshit
Thank you!
Just looking at what is, the data. My hypothesis is coming from data