Is Snowflake overvalued?
Here is the math. BQ + Azure DWH + Redshift + Snowflake + Databricks revenues are less than $12B. The entire DWH market is less than $100b of market size (10% of total cloud TAM roughly). How do you have a little Snowflake valued at $60b? You can't. So the dog and pony show of we are hiring we are hiring is simply to keep overvalued stock overvalued. Any thoughts?
Very overvalued
Short that mofo.... I have some puts on it and will add more at 200. This baby will slide down faster than fish on an oily slide. Max $20b of enterprise value and we have not even factored the AI revolution that takes out the whole traditional DWH model out forever. Who the fuck is writing sql these days?
You seriously think AI will make DWH obsolete? Enjoy losing your money obsessing over nothing lol.
Screenshot position or ban
It’s overvalued I did a back of the envelope calculation after last earnings release and came up with $60 per share. Just looked at the future billings growth numbers that Snowflake gave which TBH are inflated.
TAM will grow. Very soon a lot of traditional companies will want to exploit their data, would they build a data warehouse / data lake themselves? no, most of them will buy off the shelf solution. With more data being collected, they'll not even have a choice but to go to cloud for big data storage / proceesing / ai toolings. The thing with stock market is it's very forward looking, if it's still overvalued, it means the growth outlook is still there. When the growth story no longer makes sense, the stock will correct itself. Just look at lyft, upstart, twilio, etc. Yes it's overvalued now, but whether it will come down depends on how much the growth story makes sense, not on whether or not current revenue is low or high relative to valuation.
Snowflake at it's heart is infrastructure company. This is where their story falls because AWS, azure and GCP will always putinvest SF. Snowflake grew because these hyperscalers were catching up..AWS didn't have anything. Azure didn't have anything. And GCP didn't know how to sell. So along comes snowflake, supported by a giant AWS and ride the data migration wave from on prem solutions. That's how snowflake got built up. But it's all being turned upside down which is why both snowflake and Databricks are running into AI. They are trying their hardest to be on the next growth story but this time hyperscalers have an advantage and will screw them over. If AI becomes the decision criteria for data infrastructure decisions, GCP and Azure have a HUGE advantage over Snowflake for reasons we all know. Even databricks is more advantaged. This is why snowflake goes to the shitters.
the enterprise ai pie is very big, google and openai don't get to eat all of it. Open source ai models are getting really good. You don't have to go to azure and google for ai, although for forseeable future they will have the best models, which not everyone needs.
Cloud has same arguments that data center did in the late 90’s…exodus communications went belly up…https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exodus_Communications Not saying snowflake will go bankrupt just saying it’s an eerily similar situation 25 years later.
What's similar about it?
Maybe AMAT is saying that snowflake is like a Christmas tree or a Halloween pumpkin - they only last a season but they look nice while they last??
I think you are valuing assets, companies and markets from today’s perspective while market always look at the future opportunity because thats what is being traded. If data is growing as fast as it is and AI is nothing without data, these data companies will grow much faster than rest of the cloud….
No actually that $1T cloud market size is future perspective. And data spend has not significantly gone up as a % of that - it still hovers around the 10%. Also spending on data is the same as spending on compute and storage ultimately. You don't really need a snowflake if you have a hyperscalers. Snowflake just was very good with migration and getting it's products adopted early on. My main thing is that companies are going past buying DWH solutions. They are looking for computing solutions that gets them to AI.
You’re just mad you didn’t get a job at Snowflake. I’m sorry you didn’t match to our standards. You should try hating less… 🤌
Not hating at all - dodged a bullet. This is a discussion on money and investments. Are you suggesting that SF has a lot more upside left??
Sure thing buddy. You applied to a company l. Why would you apply to a company you didn’t believe in? It looks like the hiring manager read right through you and weeded you out.
This is classic toxic culture. When you don't agree with the message you shoot the messenger. Weeding out is different that ghosting. That thread has an acknowledgement from Snowflake employees of how ghosting is a common practice by Snowflake. But back to topic - do you think there is upside here in $snow? Do you disagree with the point about Snowflake being overvalued? And btw - I think Snowflake is an awesome product and company. It's just overvalued and has top down culture issues.
Why are you posting this screenshot? I thought these two posts were completely unrelated from an unbiased person? Because they are not. This post is a projection of your insecurity after getting rejected and ghosted. Seeing what a crybaby you are I can only applaud the manager in not hiring you. Sorry.
Isn’t it trading at about almost 30 times sales?
Better to use NTM for estimating the multiple at this stage
Value in your eyes is meaningless. Wall st is salivating over a Warren buffet backed tech thing that has a bunch of buzzwords and “data”
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