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Assuming sw industry is transitioning to remote. Salaries in HCOL areas will go down in US for sw. Evidence - As global supply chain made manufacturing anywhere possible, manufacturing salaries in US stagnated or went down. US worker still needed higher salary for same work than worker in china so jobs went to china. Manufacturing sector in US shrinked considerably. Same happened with sw jobs because of remote work. Now it has been proved to companies that they can be done from anywhere in the world. So salaries will go down and equalize in US and eventually jobs will go abroad as US worker needs min salary to pay bills in usd which is always higher than the salaries for sw in china, india. Economics 101 for dummies - salaries depend on labor supply and demand. Not on what value you bring to the company for most of sw engineers. #remote #fb #salaries #covid19
Where can I take the rest of your economics 101 class?
PhD used sarcasm! Critical git commit.
It'll happen slow enough for all of us to retire first. Only takes 10 years in this industry. Focus on passive income. If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die. - Warren Buffett
Of course salaries will go down in places like SF. As more people realize you can leave that crappy city and go live somewhere nice while making 30% less and living like a king, they'll start to do that. If companies are willing to be flexible about hiring remote workers, they can save a lot of money by not looking in HCOL locations. I'm not convinced of the sending jobs abroad, though. The U.S. still produces a large fraction of the supply of talented software engineers. Companies will want to be able to hire those people.
is US producing then or attracting them? there’s a huge difference :)
That’s a little disingenuous booking. I’m Indian myself but let’s be real here USA swe talent from top universities is damned good. Yes USA attracts top talent but there’s already top talent here too, just not enough. I’ll also say USA is the one country in the world who has mastered reverse brain drain, and I don’t see that changing in the foreseeable future.
What stops jobs from moving to india? In fact they are already going to india. Just current rate of job growth in sw industry is outpacing jobs went overseas.
Discretionary income for SWEs will remain same or even better . Overall company profits will increase , so stock prices will up leading to the net salary being approx same.
Demand is higher than supply right now so it is the moment to switch.
Manufacturing is a terrible example to use with regards to swe salaries. Manufacturing work by one individual doesn’t scale well or bring much value. Swe on the other hands are kinds of scalable work Impact + generated revenue. The reason big tech pays swe so well is cause a single swe brings in massive massive multiples of their salary as revenue for their company with their work USA will still attract top talent for a long time to come. Several indian/Chinese devs want to come here not just for the money but for the better lifestyle, less toxic 996 workhorse mentality, and whatnot. USA is the one country on earth that has mastered reverse brain drain. As long as that persists, i honestly don’t see swe salaries tanking Edit: I also would not be surprised if USA government already has plans in place to make employment laws stricter to protect against companies increasing off shore hiring in order to protect USA jobs. Employment laws are already strict but with this new move by big tech for inc wfh I’m sure it won’t be long before USA gov roles out new regulations to nip any outsourcing issues/issues that would massively cut salaries in the bud
Manufacturing is terrible example in the sense that moving manufacturing overseas is much costly and risky than moving individual remote sw job/team overseas. What stops moving jobs within us to low cost areas? I saw many sw eng temporarily move to low cost areas when covid forced them to go remote.
Talent will congregate where other talent is. Especially in a field like tech. Wfh may grow and there may be a distribution of talent along a few more key nodes now geographically but I definitely don’t see this becoming a one stop shot to massive outsourcing and salary crashes. USA swes won’t stand for that, neither would the USA government. I know blind is majority Indian presence (I’m Indian too) but to be honest the best swe talent 9/10 times is congregated in the USA. Getting those jobs outsourced will lead to a quality drop, which any self respecting tech company won’t fuck with The temporary move to low cost areas was due to covid but you’re right that picked up. However like I said I wouldn’t be surprised if employment laws tighten up on this, and if companies stop doing this as Covid winds down
And this is why we need people like Trump in office. Otherwise in 10 years the companies and execs will be HQd in America and 99% of the staff will be remote in India. Trump policies would ban such things, requiring a certain % to be in USA at least. But go ahead trade your 6 fig salary for no mean tweets.
The Biden administration definitely should go more hardline here and propose some updates to employment laws to protect against this/signal from the start to companies doing this is a no no
Why would compnanies hire people who don't understand the culture and haven't been educated in the standard American educational system as SWE and other tech positions to replace Americans? Do you really think a indian who has never lived in the US can somehow replace a local SWE? Certainly not on the frontend side of things. US system of education is based around thinking for oneself and lots of writing, Most other countries systems are based around rote memorization and constantly face tons of cheating consequently. The quality and solutions provided by someone coming from a educational system steeped in the latter just won't produce the same level of code or product as an American. Overseas engineers are not a major threat to the US engineer because they can't compete with them culturally or in terms of quality. There's already a massive backlash to outsourcing in the customer support field that caused a lot of companies to have to reshore their support teams. People who don't understand this seem to think the world works in 1 and 0s and black and white. It doesn't. The world is a much more complex place.
Wait till everything opens up. The productivity is bound to go down. Companies have invested in expensive Bay Area real estate. They can’t let that go waste. Legacy names like Oracle, Cisco may start hiring remote. But the internet companies can afford to keep their employees here. I believe low paying companies would be open to the idea of hiring remote. It brings in more candidates and they can afford to pay them less. It’s a win win.
Yes, it is a win win. If tier2 companies are able to hire remote they will get better talent for the pay they can afford to pay. It’s good for the tech talent living in non tech metro areas since now they can access good jobs without having to do a disruptive move. It’s good for these companies because they don’t have to burn a whole in the pocket to hire decent talent, or to take the long term strategic decision of moving out of hcol places. This is called reduction of market frictions.
I don’t understand.. these tier 2 companies always hired overseas and outsourced their talent. I don’t see anything new here?
They could've sent jobs overseas for years. The internet isn't new. The fact they didn't, plus the fact that they're anxious to get people back in the office, just shows that in-person work is still really valuable.
Fb is allowing remote work. Anywhere in US. SW jobs are already going overseas. Not sure about other countries. Us based companies are hiring more in india. Thanks why salaries went up there by almost 3x in last 5 years.
I can vouch for the fact that salaries have skyrocketed here in India in last 5 years. I would say 2x would be more correct though. Companies like Google, Amazon are hiring like crazy here. Everyday, I see atleast 4-5 posts of someone joining Amazon. That wasn’t the case 5-6 years ago. Not even 2 years ago. Even other industries like HW have seen salaries rise significantly.